US CPI Release Nov. 10: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead

The next US CPI release is set: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to its release calendar. Daylight saving time ended on Nov. 1, so the gap with Seoul and Tokyo is now 14 hours and the number hits Asian screens at 10:30 p.m. local time. Two figures matter most. Headline inflation ran at 3.7% year over year in September and core inflation at 2.6%. Whether either one cools will shape the case for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Economic calendar for the week of Nov. 9-13

The week runs from China's price data on Monday to US CPI on Tuesday, UK growth figures on Thursday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Dates and times below come from each agency's official calendar. Prior readings are the latest official figures, for September (second quarter for the UK).

Note: October retail sales are not part of this week. The Census Bureau calendar lists them for Tuesday, Nov. 17, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

US CPI release: where could October land?

The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast estimates October CPI at 3.74% year over year and core CPI at 2.48% (updated Nov. 6). A nowcast is a running estimate built from real-time data such as gasoline prices before the official number comes out. It is not a survey of economists, so it can differ from the market consensus. If it is right, headline inflation will barely change from September while core inflation eases by a little over 0.1 percentage point.

CPI measures changes in the prices urban consumers pay for goods and services. According to the BLS, September CPI rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% from a year earlier. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in a single month and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase, and the energy index stood 20.4% above its level a year before. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year. Shelter climbed 0.4%, faster than August's 0.3%.

Markets care because the rate path is on the line. According to 24/7 Wall St., the federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike at 76.8% on Nov. 6, up from 66.9% a week earlier. The jump followed an October payrolls gain of 165,000, about 2.5 times the forecast. The 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.51% and the 10-year at 4.86% as of Nov. 6. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Dec. 8-9.

Is the US PPI release on Nov. 11 or Nov. 13?

The official BLS schedule puts October PPI on Friday, Nov. 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Some calendars list Nov. 11, but that is Veterans Day and the BLS publishes nothing that day. The PPI tracks the prices businesses receive for the goods and services they sell, and it often previews where consumer prices are heading a few months later.

BLS data show final demand PPI rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% from a year earlier. Final demand energy prices jumped 10.8%, explaining more than 80% of the rise in goods prices, and gasoline gained 20.3%. Core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade services, was up 5.0% year over year.

China's prices and UK growth: what to watch outside the US

China's consumer prices rose less than 1% in September. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI was up 0.9% from a year earlier and core CPI 1.0%. Producer prices told a different story, rising 5.0% year over year and 1.2% on the month. Factory-gate prices are climbing fast while consumer prices barely move. If that gap holds in October, it would suggest Chinese companies cannot pass higher costs on to buyers. For countries that import intermediate goods from China, it can also mean pricier inputs.

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish its first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September monthly GDP on Nov. 12. Second-quarter growth was 0.5% quarter on quarter, revised up from an initial 0.4% (published Sept. 30).

Why core inflation deserves the first look

In September, headline CPI (3.7%) ran 1.1 percentage points above core CPI (2.6%), and most of that gap came from energy. That is why core inflation and shelter are the better guide to the trend this time. Energy prices can reverse quickly. Shelter and service prices tend to stay put once they rise.

If core inflation eases toward 2.5%, as the nowcast suggests, 77% odds of a December hike may look a bit ahead of the data. If core instead rises 0.3% or more on the month again, as it did in September, that would signal the energy shock spreading into other prices. Rate worries were also part of the backdrop when the Nasdaq fell 5.5% after the midterm elections. The sharp drop in oil covered in that piece came after the election and will not show up in October data. Its effect will appear in the November CPI, due in December.

Market impact map

For the week of Nov. 9-13, market direction hinges largely on Tuesday's CPI report. Arrows in the table read "core CPI above / below the Cleveland Fed nowcast (2.48% y/y)". The nowcast is used here as a reference point, not as the market consensus.

Little direct impact: Oil (WTI) (it feeds into inflation data rather than reacting to the release)

• Borrowing costs: If hike expectations build, yields that guide mortgage and auto loan rates could face upward pressure.
• Travel and imports: A stronger dollar makes foreign trips and imported goods cheaper for US buyers, and dearer for those paying in other currencies.
• Import prices: If China's PPI keeps climbing, Chinese-made components and consumer goods could get more expensive.

Market reactions can vary with other factors, and this table is not a basis for investment decisions.

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