Nonfarm payrolls
nonfarm payroll · jobs report · NFP
Nonfarm payrolls, the headline figure in the monthly US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show how many jobs were added or lost outside the farm sector in a month.
In plain terms
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) usually releases the jobs report on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. A survey of employers produces the payroll count, and a household survey produces the unemployment rate. Wage growth comes out at the same time. The two previous months are also revised, and the size of those revisions can become news in its own right.
Why it matters
The Fed has two goals: stable prices and maximum employment. Hiring that is too hot, with fast wage growth, raises inflation worries; falling jobs and rising unemployment raise recession worries. That is why jobs day, along with CPI day, is one of the biggest market-moving events of the month.
How it connects to markets
- More jobs than expected: fewer expected rate cuts, so yields and the dollar tend to rise
- Fewer jobs or higher unemployment: more expected cuts, lower yields and a weaker dollar; if recession fears grow, stocks can fall too
- Wage growth: feeds into service-sector prices and the outlook for core inflation